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A Comparison of Natural and Predicted Earthquake Occurrence in Seismologically Active Areas Statistical Significance Of Predicted Earthquake Occurrence.

Автор:   Ganesh N.
мягкая обложка
76 страниц
2009 год
Издательство:   Книга по Требованию
Цена:
1994 руб
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Описание:This book compares their predictions to the natural occurrence of earthquakes within the region in order to evaluate the apparent success of Qiang et al' s. (2001) method. It is clearly seen that more than 80% earthquakes occurred outside the predicted window iwth variable statistical signifcance. Thus, the ability of the model to predict earthquake epicenters can be called into question. Despite their apparent success at predicting the earthquakes, they did not compare their prediction with the natural rate of occurrence in the area, which experiences an earthquake of Richter magnitude greater than 4 every week. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day and almost any method for predicting earthquakes will succeed occasionally, whether the methods have merit or not. Qiang et al. (2001) successfully predicted 100 earthquakes that is based on a predicted increase of ground temperatures in the lower atmosphere from 2 to 8 days before a large scale earthquake.


Orthomol Immun Junior Сила иммунитета на страже Вашего ребенка Orthomol Immun Junior Сила иммунитета на страже Вашего ребенка

2990 руб
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God's Debris

And they could predict that the child is dead if missing more than forty– eight hours, with the body probably left outdoors within fifty miles of the crime. Let’s say the police call in an FBI profiler who is even more proficient than the police at spotting criminal patterns. Based on experience and statistics with similar crimes, the profiler might predict that the perpetrator has a certain type of background, upbringing, and personality. The police detectives and the FBI profiler can produce information that would seem psychic if you didn’t know it was based on simple patterns. Now let’s say the police contact a so-called psychic who is a genius at pattern recognition. At the genius level, far more subtle patterns come into play.” He continued. “For example, the entertainment and news media create patterns in the public’s minds. Let’s say that several movies and TV shows about kidnappings in the past year have created a pattern about the best place to dispose of dead bodies. That pattern could influence a perpetrator to pick a drainage ditch instead of an old shack ...»

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