Integrating Data and Expert Opinion Using Bayesian Statistics to Build Complex Reliability Models Theory and Case Study. Expert Knowledge Based Reliability Models:

The proof of this is that the same statistics in the hands of several experts, even though they may all be вЂspecialists’ in the same line, often give rise, according to the respective theories of the experts, to quite different conclusions, which may even sometimes be diametrically opposed. That being the case, the self-styled вЂexact’ sciences of the moderns, to the extent that they make use of statistics and go so far as to extract from them predictions for the future (relying always on the supposed identicality of the facts taken into account, whether past or future), are really no more than mere вЂconjectural’ sciences, to use an expression freely employed by the promoters of a kind of modern astrology dubbed вЂscientific’; and in employing this term they admit more freely than many other people what their astrology really consists in, for it certainly has only the vaguest and most remote connection, perhaps no more than that of a common terminology, with the true traditional astrology of the ancients, which is today as completely lost as all other knowledge of the same order ...»