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Electricity Prices in Deregulated Markets. Predicting Prices for Decision Making

Автор:   Claudio R.
мягкая обложка
140 страниц
2009 год
Издательство:   Книга по Требованию
2413 руб
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Описание:The author outlines a procedure for forecasting the mean and the variance of the average price of electricity over a specified time interval in a deregulated market. A potential advantage of this approach is that it can consider changes in system' s structure over time (e. g. , entry of additional generators or a change in load. ) The emphasis in the current work is on the use of analytical methods to forecast the statistical distributions of prices. The estimates of variances in addition to those of the expected values would allow computation of prediction intervals for the price as well as individual firm' s profits, and will be useful for the purposes of risk management, for example, in the computation of the Value-at-Risk (VaR). Such information would be found useful in financial forecasts, risk management, derivative pricing, investment and operational decisions. The system based approach in this work is an important first step in the construction of a comprehensive model, which may help to design and manage electricity deregulated markets. It is based on a system model in which the physical and engineering processes and the bidding strategies are simultaneously considered.

Orthomol Immun Junior Сила иммунитета на страже Вашего ребенка Orthomol Immun Junior Сила иммунитета на страже Вашего ребенка

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The Tipping Point

They know where the bathroom is in retail stores. That's the kind of knowledge they have." They are more than experts. An expert, says Price, will "talk about, say, cars because they love cars. But they don't talk about cars because they love you, and want to help you with your decision. The Market Maven will. They are more socially motivated." Price says that well over half of Americans know a Maven or someone close to the Maven's description. She herself, in fact, based the concept around someone she met when she was in graduate school, a man so memorable that his personality serves as the basis for what is now an entire field of research in the marketing world. "I was doing my Ph.D. at the University of Texas," Price said. "At the time I didn't realize it, but I met the perfect Maven. He's Jewish and it was Easter and I was looking for a ham and I asked him. And he said, well, you know I am Jewish, but here's the deli you should go to and here's the price you should pay." Price started laughing at the memory. "You should look him up ...»

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