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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableБЂњOTHER THAN THAT,БЂ«IT WAS OKAY We have used the story of the Sydney Opera House as a springboard for our discussion of prediction. We will now address another constant in human nature: a systematic error made by project planners, coming from a mixture of human nature, the complexity of the world, or the structure of organizations. In order to survive, institutions may need to give themselves and others the appearance of having a БЂњvision.БЂ«Plans fail because of what we have called tunneling, the neglect of sources of uncertainty outside the plan itself. The typical scenario is as follows. Joe, a nonfiction writer, gets a book contract with a set final date for delivery two years from now. The topic is relatively easy: the authorized biography of the writer Salman Rushdie, for which Joe has compiled ample data. He has even tracked down RushdieБЂ™s former girlfriends and is thrilled at the prospect of pleasant interviews. Two years later, minus, say, three months, he calls to explain to the publisher that he will be a little delayed ...» |
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