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The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern FutureIf there is one thing that the climate models all agree on,283 itБЂ™s that precipitation (snow and rain) will increase there, especially in winter. It must increase, in obedience to physics284 and rising evaporation from open lakes and seas as they become unfrozen for longer times during the year. The plainest manifestation of this will be snowier winters and higher river flows. Across southern Europe, western North America, the Middle East, and southern Africa, river flows are projected to fall 10%-30% by 2050. However, they will increase by a similar amount across northern Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia, and Russia.285 This has already happened in Russia. Through statistical analysis of old Soviet hydrologic records, one of my own projects helped to confirm rising river flows there, including sharp increases in south-central Russia beginning around 1985.286 Recall the bleak future of stressed human water supply all around the planetБЂ™s dry latitudes from Chapter 4? That future is not shared by the North. It is water-rich now and, except for CanadaБЂ™s south-central prairies and the Russian steppes, will become even more water-rich in the future ...» |
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