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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableYou are likely to see many giants in your sample, not a rare occasional one. Your average will not be impacted by the occasional additional giant because some of these giants are expected to be part of your sample, and your average is likely to be high. In other words, the largest observation cannot be too far away from the average. The average will always contain both kinds, giants and dwarves, so that neither should be too rareБЂ”unless you get a megagiant or a microdwarf on very rare occasion. This would be Mediocristan with a large unit of deviation. Note once again the following principle: the rarer the event, the higher the error in our estimation of its probabilityБЂ”even when using the Gaussian. Let me show you how the Gaussian bell curve sucks randomness out of lifeБЂ”which is why it is popular. We like it because it allows certainties! How? Through averaging, as I will discuss next. How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe Recall from the Mediocristan discussion in Chapter 3 that no single observation will impact your total ...» |
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