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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableHe links it to self-deception. In fields where we have ancestral traditions, such as pillaging, we are very good at predicting outcomes by gauging the balance of power. Humans and chimps can immediately sense which side has the upper hand, and make a cost-benefit analysis about whether to attack and take the goods and the mates. Once you start raiding, you put yourself into a delusional mind-set that makes you ignore additional informationБЂ”it is best to avoid wavering during battle. On the other hand, unlike raids, large-scale wars are not something present in human heritageБЂ”we are new to themБЂ”so we tend to misestimate their duration and overestimate our relative power. Recall the underestimation of the duration of the Lebanese war. Those who fought in the Great War thought it would be a mere cakewalk. So it was with the Vietnam conflict, so it is with the Iraq war, and just about every modern conflict. You cannot ignore self-delusion. The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know ...» |
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